This year’s Oscar race is definitely one of the closest in recent history, especially when it comes to Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress. The other categories, while they have favorites, also have chances at an upset. So basically, your Oscar ballots are screwed unless you can correctly predict all the upsets in each category, because I guarantee you: there will be surprises.
So without further ado, we present our insider take on who deserves to win and who will probably end up winning. Courtesy of a friend who’s a longtime member of the Academy, we’ve gotten some insight on the main categories.
It’s a very, very close call between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, with a chance at an American Hustle upset. According to our source, there are a LOT of academy members that haven’t managed to sit through 12 Years a Slave, which might not bode well in its favor. However, it still does carry the most weight when it comes to the ‘importance’ of the film, which voters also like to acknowledge. And because of the wacky preferential voting system that the Academy has in place, Hustle has a strong chance of sneaking in there as well.
Gravity may not have Best Picture on lock, but it certainly has Best Director. Our source tells us that everyone she’s spoken to is voting for Alfonso Cuaron – not only because he’s deserving, but because he’s incredibly nice, charming, funny, and humble. Remember, Oscar voters are easily biased, just like the rest of us. However, this is the one category where the person that most deserves to win might actually get the award. Huzzah for the director’s branch.
This is where it starts diverging between who deserves to win and who will win. I think everyone we’ve spoken to agrees that Chiwetel Ejiofer gave the better performance, but Matthew McConaughey will win because he’s having a major career comeback and he gave the flashier performance in Dallas Buyer’s Club. Our source tells us that while she voted for Chiwetel, most of the people she knows voted for Matthew – either because they know and like him a lot, or because they’re awarding him for True Detective. Plus, voters really, really like to see attractive movie stars lose weight for some reason. Call it sadistic pleasure maybe.
There’s no denying this category, which Cate Blanchett has had on lock since Blue Jasmine came out. Our source agrees: there’s no way anyone’s beating Blanchett, who’s the closest thing to a lock as this year’s race allows. While our source adds that Amy Adams is long due for a win, she’ll have to wait until next year or the year after to finally get her win, because Blanchett’s performance is miles ahead of anyone else’s this year.
Best Supporting Actor:
Chalk another one up for Dallas Buyer’s Club. For a film that’s not a frontrunner for Best Picture and had such a minimal budget, they’ve certainly done well for themselves, haven’t they? While our source adds that Michael Fassbender would have had a strong shot at the win if he had campaigned, it’s Jared Leto‘s to lose come Sunday night. He’s been campaigning his ass off, and he’s also served up a performance of a lifetime. Plus, his role in the film is pretty much Oscar bait to a T.
Best Supporting Actress:
The toughest and closest race to call. Jennifer Lawrence and Lupita Nyong’o have been going neck and neck all awards season, with Lawrence winning the BAFTA and the Golden Globe, but Nyong’o winning the Screen Actor’s Guild and Critic’s Choice Awards. While history plays in Lawrence’s favor, our source revealed that many of her friends are refusing to vote for Lawrence purely out of the fact that they don’t want to give her another Oscar only a year after she won. Plus, she asserts that Lawrence will end up getting nominated again and again and again, whereas Lupita might not have this kind of opportunity that quickly. It’s unfortunate, but with the state of affairs in Hollywood, also probably true. So we’re going with Lupita Nyong’o, although Lawrence’s name could just as easily be called Sunday night.
Who are you guys rooting for come Sunday? Let us know your thoughts in the comments.